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A second emerging opportunity for the Discovery Logic business is the identification and visualization of the Edge of Science.
This is a still-evolving tool used to identify emerging trends that are inherently difficult to predict,
such as the next important fields of research.
The Edge of Science is versatile and applies to many questions, such as: Which new areas of science
should I pay attention to? What is the value of a particular discovery? A new patent? An idea or a
person? The Edge of Science approaches these questions typically using communication paths or "tentacles"
that snake through multiple databases, retrieving the data it needs, and synthesize the new
understanding in real time.
For example, in the field of biodefense, we may need to know whether an issue at the “edge of science”
should be classified as an emerging threat. There are many such issues, all of them changing rapidly:
Which should be taken seriously? Perhaps someone in Canada is selling an aerosol container that can
spread germs. Is the germ in the container the true threat or the new technology that was used to create
the aerosol container? There are many candidates for emerging threats and intense pressure to identify them.
Similarly, financial firms have an urgent need for “opportunity detection” – analyzing many ongoing
activities for their potential economic value. Will a certain innovation have economic importance,
or will it soon fade away – along with 99% of all other innovations? Where should a firm be looking
for the "next big thing?"
A third question that many organizations need to address is the value of a patent or similar idea or
project. Is there any way to measure this value, other than guessing, or waiting until it is known by
everyone?
Of course, the time-honored method to answer such difficult questions is to assemble a dozen or so
"experts" on a panel. For the question about biodefense, this panel might include a range of
expertise – in epidemiology, immunology, and behavioral science, for example – to cover many aspects
of the question. The panel is then asked for an answer.
The use of such expert panels, of course, has limited value as even the most knowledgeable experts have
partial knowledge and varying opinions.
A more objective way to answer such "edge" questions has been developed and tested at Discovery Logic.
Using the up-to-date volumes of R&D information assembled in the ScienceWire™ databases, the Edge of Science
technique can bring to bear far more information than ever before thought possible. Using appropriate algorithms,
this data can be extracted, manipulated, and condensed to answer exactly the kinds of question described above.
These algorithms are able to simplify and focus the most difficult "edge" questions in new and flexible ways.
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